Hamas Continues Resistance in Gaza with 20,000 Fighters Despite Leadership Losses
Hamas is maintaining its resistance against one of the world's most powerful militaries, even after Israel has systematically targeted and eliminated many of its top leaders over the past 15 months of conflict. Following the assassination of political leader Ismail Haniya in Iran last July, key figures such as Mohamed Deif, head of Hamas's military wing, and Yahia Sinwar, the military chief, were also killed. Despite these leadership losses, Hamas is believed to still have a significant fighting force, estimated at around 20,000 militants.
Recent military actions by Israel have revealed that Hamas continues to pose a challenge, often forcing Israeli forces to engage in areas previously considered cleared of militants. This ongoing conflict began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas captured approximately 251 hostages, although Israeli authorities now estimate that only about 70 of these hostages remain alive.
Currently, indirect negotiations for a ceasefire are taking place in Doha, mediated by Qatar and Egypt. The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is demanding the release of all hostages in exchange for a cessation of hostilities, while Hamas insists on a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. Despite the losses it has suffered, Hamas continues to rely on its substantial network of tunnels and its remaining fighter strength, which is believed to be bolstered by recruitment efforts.
Prior to the escalation of violence in October 2023, the CIA estimated Hamas's combatant numbers to be between 25,000 and 30,000. Israeli officials now report that the active number of militants ranges from 20,000 to 23,000, with at least 9,000 of those affiliated directly with Hamas, while others are part of groups like Islamic Jihad. Israeli assessments suggest that nearly half of these militants are well-organized and operational.
Analysts indicate that although Hamas has acknowledged substantial losses--between 6,000 and 7,000 members--its leadership structure remains intact. The group has adapted its political leadership model following the deaths of its top officials, now operating under a five-member team to mitigate the impact of potential further assassinations. The military command has reportedly shifted to Mohamed Sinwar, brother of Yahia Sinwar.
Hamas claims to have preserved a significant portion of its tunnel infrastructure, which Israel has targeted during the conflict. Reports suggest that around 40% of the tunnels remain operational, allowing Hamas to continue its military operations despite the destruction caused by Israeli airstrikes. Difficulty in fully neutralizing these tunnels is compounded by their complex interconnections.
Experts indicate that Hamas fighters may be biding their time, waiting for the right moment to engage in combat while utilizing available resources effectively. Some sources suggest that the group has recruited approximately 4,000 new fighters in the past month, funding this recruitment through the sale of humanitarian aid packages that have been confiscated and resold in local markets.
Although there is some discontent within Gaza regarding Hamas's leadership, with many blaming the group for miscalculations that led to increased Israeli retaliation, support for Hamas remains relatively stable. Polls indicate that historical support for the group hovers between 30% and 40%. Despite the ongoing humanitarian crisis and high casualties in Gaza, public sentiment continues to hold Israel accountable for the situation.
As the situation evolves, analysts suggest that Hamas could sustain its guerrilla warfare tactics for an extended period, drawing parallels to other prolonged conflicts in the region. The future of the conflict and the effectiveness of potential negotiations remain uncertain, with the possibility of further escalations looming if discussions fail.
